The Euro got carried away by the Pound and savored some buoyancy on Brexit. Although, the progress was not one-sided and the pair’s range was small. The US excise on China reached the forefront and during this moment the market emergence somewhat faded away.
Euro-zone PMI’s were assorted while German factory orders dismay. US data were mixed as well. The market mood, mostly inspired by tariffs and Brexit, moved the EUR/USD more than anything else. The multitude of Factors of EUR/USD kept it from making significant breakouts and did not fluctuate too fas as traded in a lower range. The ECB’s rate decision stands out.
1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30 The figure reaching 14.7 points in August. This survey of 2,800 analysts and investors surprised to the upside in the past two months. A similar figure is likely for September
2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Growing positively about growth in Germany could push it higher. The continent’s largest economy recovered in August but remained in negative territory, -13.7 points. The current Conditions and the all-European figure which was also negative in August, -11.1 points.
3. Employment Change: An increase of 0.4% was seen in Q1 2018 and a slightly slower pace is likely in Q2. The quarterly figure showed precise jobless rate figure, but still provides a broad view of the labor market in the old continent.
4. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. The main countries will have published their own data then after the Industrial output for the whole euro-zone is published. A drop of 0.7% was seen in June and another slide cannot be ruled out for July.
5. German Final CPI: Thursday, 6:00. The initial approximate for August stood at a monthly increase of 0.1%. Any change in the German number will affect the all-European final figure due in the following week.
6. French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45. An increase of 0.5% m/m was seen in August according to the preliminary read. It will likely be confirmed.
7. Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. The wide trade surplus of euro-zone is mostly driven by Germany’s exports. However, this surplus decreased in recent months, standing at 16.7 billion euros in June. A small rise may be seen now.
8. Euro-zone rate decision: Eurozone rate decision at 11:45, press conference by the president of ECB at 12:30. The European Central Bank decrease its bond-buying scheme at the end of the month to €15 billion from €30 billion so far. It proposes to end purchases at the end of the year. However, the recent drop in inflation and trade concerns may push them to paint a more dovish picture. In addition to the tone of the presser, the ECB releases new staff forecasts in this meeting.
1. 1.1850 was the peak on June 14th, before Draghi sent the euro down. 1.1795 was a swing high back in July.
2. 1.1750 held the pair no less than four times in July and remains a powerful level.
3. 1.1720 is a veteran line that worked in both directions, last seen in November. 1.1650 was a swing low in late August and is very closely followed by 1.1630 which held the price down in mid-August.
4. 1.1580 worked as support in late August. 1.1530 supported the pair twice in August, making it an important line.
5. 1.1435 held the EUR/USD down when it was trading around the yearly lows.
6. 1.1300 is a round number that held the pair in mid-August and also held the pair down in June 2017.