There is little economic related news to JPY which affect exchange rate. Main influential news will come from outside of Japan. The Yen still completely lacks domestic interest rate support. The BOJ is also buying huge amounts of bonds as part of its quantitative easing program.
The US dollar index fell during last trading day of week. Pair trade with negative bias. Level of 110.00 acts as major support but break of this level looks possible with monthly charts breakout.
Global recession fear and trade war related news will put upside capped limited to 110.70-111.
Forex trader data shows majority of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.85 to 1.When pair traded near 112.517; price moved lower since then. Currently traders net-long is now its highest .when USDJPY traded near 106.9.
On technical front pair breakout from triangle pattern on weekly charts with price target of 110 – 109.70, price above 111.7 in near term not expected but can say pair trade in wide range of 109.7-111.5 for this week.
Pair upside will be based on recovery in Euro zone economy and ECB future policy rate hike. As per market experts assumption ECB will not raise its policy rate in year 2019.Its counterpart Fed will be key which on its path of rate hike in coming year.
Euro zone and German economic activity has been hampered by the global trade war, which has taken a bite out of the export sector and dampened consumer confidence. Italian budget crisis and Brexit remains problems policy maker. If economic activity improves early in the New Year, the euro could rise against dollar.
Italian government reached an agreement for budget cuts this time after long negotiation can be catalyst for bullish Euro.
The EUR/USD pair moved higher above 1.1400. Most Asian market indexes were up .The pair not able to hold higher level and retrace lower near 1.1440-1.1450 but manage to close above 1.1400 levels.
Pair took major support around 1.1350 and major resistance faced by pair is 1.1480-1.1500.
Technically pair consolidating in range of 1.1350-1.1500.If pair moves out of this can raise pair to 1.1540-1.1600. If pair not managed to hold 1.1400 can again slide to 1.1370-1.1350
Weak performance of the U.S. bond yields and concerns over the potential negative impact of the Fed’s monetary policy on the economic growth caused the US Dollar Index to lose its strength. Index trade below level of 97, Ahead of the housing and trade balance data from the U.S., the index is losing 0.35% on the day at 96.23.
Pair can break down below the 0.70 level; where it can find strong support around 0.68. Rallies are selling opportunities and I believe that the 200 day exponential moving average above is massive resistance, 0.7150 area will be attracted for sellers again. I think that signs of exhaustion after rallies will be selling opportunities.
Pair trading below short term 20 days moving averages any move near 0.7180level is good selling opportunity for lower level. Pair looks oversold so entry on higher side is good trade entry.
Pair upside will be based on recovery in Euro zone economy, policy rate hike. Its counterpart Fed will be on its path of rate hike in coming year. The week include business confidence and consumer sentiment numbers due out on Tuesday and Wednesday, with 3rd quarter GDP numbers and November trade data to provide direction for the Kiwi Dollar.
Market trader and participants turned net-long for the first time with a net purchase of over 18k contracts. It was still a curiously strong move. It was the largest change of hands since selling over 22k contracts back in June when large specs turned net short.
It also comes after a relatively strong up-move and recent reversal.
Pair show possible reversal from lower level now reach at supply zone of 1.7171. Pair consolidates here some time and continues its further move.