EURUSD Technical and Fundamental Forecast
The Euro got carried away by the Pound and savored some buoyancy on Brexit. Although, the progress was not one-sided and the pair’s range was small. The US excise on China reached the forefront and during this moment the market emergence somewhat faded away.
Euro-zone PMI’s were assorted while German factory orders dismay. US data were mixed as well. The market mood, mostly inspired by tariffs and Brexit, moved the EUR/USD more than anything else. The multitude of Factors of EUR/USD kept it from making significant breakouts and did not fluctuate too fas as traded in a lower range. The ECB’s rate decision stands out.
EUR/USD Fundamental News Outlook
1. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30 The figure reaching 14.7 points in August. This survey of 2,800 analysts and investors surprised to the upside in the past two months. A similar figure is likely for September
2. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. Growing positively about growth in Germany could push it higher. The continent’s largest economy recovered in August but remained in negative territory, -13.7 points. The current Conditions and the all-European figure which was also negative in August, -11.1 points.
3. Employment Change: An increase of 0.4% was seen in Q1 2018 and a slightly slower pace is likely in Q2. The quarterly figure showed precise jobless rate figure, but still provides a broad view of the labor market in the old continent.
4. Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. The main countries will have published their own data then after the Industrial output for the whole euro-zone is published. A drop of 0.7% was seen in June and another slide cannot be ruled out for July.
5. German Final CPI: Thursday, 6:00. The initial approximate for August stood at a monthly increase of 0.1%. Any change in the German number will affect the all-European final figure due in the following week.
6. French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45. An increase of 0.5% m/m was seen in August according to the preliminary read. It will likely be confirmed.
7. Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. The wide trade surplus of euro-zone is mostly driven by Germany’s exports. However, this surplus decreased in recent months, standing at 16.7 billion euros in June. A small rise may be seen now.
8. Euro-zone rate decision: Eurozone rate decision at 11:45, press conference by the president of ECB at 12:30. The European Central Bank decrease its bond-buying scheme at the end of the month to €15 billion from €30 billion so far. It proposes to end purchases at the end of the year. However, the recent drop in inflation and trade concerns may push them to paint a more dovish picture. In addition to the tone of the presser, the ECB releases new staff forecasts in this meeting.
EUR/USD Support and Resistance Lines
Technical Lines from Top to Bottom:
1. 1.1850 was the peak on June 14th, before Draghi sent the euro down. 1.1795 was a swing high back in July.
2. 1.1750 held the pair no less than four times in July and remains a powerful level.
3. 1.1720 is a veteran line that worked in both directions, last seen in November. 1.1650 was a swing low in late August and is very closely followed by 1.1630 which held the price down in mid-August.
4. 1.1580 worked as support in late August. 1.1530 supported the pair twice in August, making it an important line.
5. 1.1435 held the EUR/USD down when it was trading around the yearly lows.
6. 1.1300 is a round number that held the pair in mid-August and also held the pair down in June 2017.