Weekly Commodity Market Forecast 3rd to 7th DEC-18

Commodity Market Forecast: Take a look at the Gold price forecast and Crude oil price forecast.  Let’s take look at major fundamental news and technical lines that can affect the price action of Gold and Crude Oil in the commodity market.


Geopolitical & Macro News

1. Brexit: The weekend’s EU Summit and the BoE’s comments on Thursday of its effect examination of the Brexit bargain on the UK economy and money related security will be the key driver.

2. The EU Summit throughout the end of the week where Britain is hoping to earn the vital part state support to take it to Parliament. Expect a lot of instability, with those against the draft prone to raise questions over a vote for the arrangement should 20 part states bolster the draft.

3. U.S – China Trade War: It’s the G20 Summit and, while few are expecting goals, the advance will be expected to ease. The Summit commences on Friday and closures on Saturday.

4. Italy with the EU Commission planning for disciplinary action, some alert is required in the week ahead, any retaliatory reactions from the Italian alliance government liable to hit the EUR in the wake of the EU Summit throughout the end of the week.

5. The dollar traded slightly higher against major rivals on Friday as investors continued to digest speeches given this week from top Federal Reserve officials, The central bank is expecting to hike interest rates in December but emphasized the importance of incoming data for upcoming decisions, making future moves less predictable than the quarterly hikes so far this year.


Gold Price Forecast

Gold price edged lower on Friday, slipping back toward the 20-day moving average at 1,219. Major support is seen close to the 50-day moving normally at 1,215. A break below this would prompt a test of an upward slanting pattern line that associates the highs in August to the highs in October that comes in almost $1205.

Gold Price Forecast technical lines

As per momentum indicator and gold trading in the channel on weekly basis now major support place at lower channel support $1205 while Resistance at $1231. If trade above this can lead gold to the level of $1238

Symbol Type 5 Minutes 15 Minutes Hourly Daily Monthly
Gold Moving Averages: Strong Buy Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Sell
1222.1 Indicators: Strong Sell Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Sell
  Summary: Neutral Buy Strong Buy Strong Buy Strong Sell


Crude Oil Price Forecast

Crude Oil: Crude oil over the last week traded in the range of $ 49.41-$52.As per weekly time, frame price pattern form looks like Doji. Any move above high of Doji can take price to $55 level. On the other hand, in the event that we separate beneath the base of the candle the market can go much lower, maybe coming to towards the $45 handle after that. While the major focus will be from OPEC on Dec 03 any outcome to reduce cut will.

crude oil Price Forecast technical lines
Boost prices and crude can be rise sharply.



Week’s Major Events

Date Time Currency   Actual Forecast Previous
Dec-03 8:30 PM USD ISM Manufacturing PMI   57.5 57.7
  2:45 PM GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks      
  2:00 PM EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks      
  6:45 PM USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies      
    USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI   59.2 60.3
  All Day All OPEC Meetings      
Dec-07 5:15 AM USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks      
    USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m   0.30% 0.20%
    USD Non-Farm Employment Change   200K 250K
    USD Unemployment Rate   3.70% 3.70%






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