What to expect from the Gold in 2019? When will the next great gold market begin? Read further to find out.
– Robert Kiyosaki
Investing in commodities especially on gold and Silver is always considered as a safe place for commodities trader. Gold, from ancient times, has not lost its touch of being favorite, whether she is a woman who feels like royalty when she wears it, or, a gold trader who likes to play the big game.
Is this story gonna remain the same?
As we know the Gold forecast is very difficult. There are many things that affect Gold pricing; like, major political changes, economic issues, oil prices, supply and demand, sentiments of the market, US dollar, federal reserve, etc.
But, analysts and gold traders, they do the analysis by using two important methods for gold prediction in the bullion market. The first one is Fundamental i.e. studying and analyzing of news, market sentiments, geopolitical issues, major decisions of the international organizations, keeping alerts on supply and demand etc.
The second one is Technical Analysis. It is done by analyzing data with the help of technical charts, price analysis by studying patterns and trend lines. It is used to find gold signals, gold forecast etc.
We will first discuss the fundamental analysis of ongoing issues in the world that can affect gold prices.
At present gold future is trading at $1246 and it is at 5 months high in Asia, getting stronger due to the weakness of dollar price.
According to an interview on Kitco with E.B. Tucker, Director of Metalla Royalty; said
“Now is the great time to buy gold. Next year there are chances to hit $1500, which will be about 22% hike in Gold Price.”
On asking about people who are expecting bearish gold market, he added
“Gold is money it will always be money, people need to understand the cycle. There have been three major cycles since 2000 and next will be in 2019. Gold will be the best performing market.”
Moving ahead with international issues,
Recently G20 summit in Argentina also brought good news for the gold traders. As there will be no tariff hike at the least in January and the dollar will experience sharp selling, therefore we can expect strong buying in Gold.
Merrill Lynch from Bank of America also estimates the gold price to rise above $1,300 by the end of the coming year, with a forecast of $1,380 by 2020, a potential upside of 13%.
Based on a survey conducted with 35 traders and analysts in recent month, their forecast for an average gold price was $1,301 an ounce in 2018 and $1,325 in 2019
Above are the latest fundamental analysis of the Gold Forecast.
Let’s dive into the technical analysis of gold, for that we have to know the historical chart of gold prices.
As you can see from the graph, the price of XAU/USD, the trend during 2012-2013 suggests that the support was at $1234.25 and resistance was at $1771.22. At the beginning of 2018 gold price was at $1275.01. But during June-July-August the price fell down to $1184.77 because of the revival of the American economy and strong dollar price which led to higher interest rates. After that price went on increasing up to $1248.71, that means there are chances that price will rise at least up to $1300.
The gold price nearly doubled in price in September 2011 where it reaches to new resistance finally raising to $1823.80, and turned aggressively lower in January 2012. That bearish pattern consummated in April 2013 after that it made difficult to bounce back to the previous record easily
There are many factors that can affect gold prices US Dollar, Fed rates, oil prices, supply, and demand, etc.
Let’s have a short look at 3 major factors that can affect oil price in 2019.
Gold has an inverse relationship with US Dollar, as dollar weakens, the equity market goes down and therefore gold traders move to invest in Gold. As we have described by our chart.
At present US Dollar is highly fluctuating, due to an ongoing trade war, Brexit and other geopolitical issues. The latest weakening in the value of dollar helped gold to reach 5-month peak since March.
There is a negative relationship between fed rates and gold. If fed rates go high gold prices decrease. According to recent news of CNBC fear of hike of fed rate is decreasing as the final fed meeting of 2018-2019 approaching.
Recently the Fed signaled, it would raise interest rates to 2.5 percent in December 2018, 3.0 percent in 2019.
Crude Oil price is the major indicator of gold prices, how will gold prices going to behave is highly depended on crude oil prices due to demand and supply reason.
Though they are not directly related, they related through dollar ad dollar value changes with the supply-demand of oil as almost all the countries buy oil in US dollar.
Oil price is got down to 51.83 but moving average is at 60.00; that means oil price can go up. But this is also not certain.
In recent OPEC announcement to boost oil price by cutting supply might change oil prices, if oil prices changes then inflation will rise therefore people will invest in Gold as Gold is a hedge against inflation.
Adding to that if oil price rises up it decrease the economic growth due to its aggressive use in industries, which further affects equity market negatively. Then investors move to other safe assets to invest as in Gold.
You can conclude that,
Gold can get affected by all the trending issues in a positive way. It will remain a safe haven for investors and the biggest opportunity for Gold traders, as it is finally breaking longtime resistance level at $1242.5 of 200-day(SMA) on 7th December 2018 . We can expect it to reach $1300 during 2019 if we consider the expert advice.
To invest in Gold in 2019 you should think seriously and consult a genuine advisory service for Gold Tips and Comex Signal.