The US Dollar finished November with mixed moves. Yesterday’s outcomes from G20 about trade war related to US and China brings cheer.
The EU Summit affirmed the Brexit bargain not surprisingly, however, there is developing vulnerability if the UK government can pass the arrangement in parliament. Indications of a bargain from Italy upheld the euro.
This week’s key events on which trader has to be kept focus are:
ISM Manufacturing PMI: This data will be released today at 03:00 PM (GMT). It’s a leading indicator of economic health. Last, in NOV 01 2018, it came 57.7. This time forecast is 57.50 any data above this gives a good indication of US economy.
RBA Rate Statement: Last time Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rates unchanged at 1.50% for over two years. In previous policy meet all agree that stance of low-interest rate is not always and hike may be gradual based on economic condition. Before any hike central bank will focus on GDP data which will be released on Wednesday 05 December.
GDP Data of Australia: In the last quarter came around 0.9% slightly higher than the forecast of 0.7%. Improving labor market, payroll and industrial manufacturing data will give the boost to this time GDP figures. This time consensus is 0.6% any figure above this will bring view about economic progress.
Retail Sales Figure (AUD): It’s the primary barometer of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity and consumer spending.
Last time data came around 0.2% and time forecast is 0.3%.
After G20 meeting US dollar slides against AUD. Morning pair opens with gap up at 0.7376. The major hurdle for the price is 0.7440 level here previous swing high and 200-day moving average also in place to act as resistance level from upside. To break this any major volume addition either by the way of RBA surprise rate hike or GDP numbers will bring pair above this level.
As per momentum MFI indicator also trade sideways and indicate less attraction towards pair at the higher level.
For the week ahead pair can be traded in Range of 0.7200-0.7440.
Bullish View: Only above 0.7440
Bearish View: Below 0.7200