EURUSD Forecast: On the ongoing Italian crisis and the strength of the US dollar, EUR / USD lost much ground. Will it continue? GDP figures and some other indicators are coming in the coming weeks. Here is an approach to this week’s key features and an updated technical analysis for EUR / USD.
Italy emphasized 2.4% budget deficit, while the European Commission insisted that it would not stand. The stand-off continues and the increased rhetoric is on the Italian bond and the euro.
The European Central Bank left the policy unchanged and expressed a balanced message: highlighting increased employment and wages, expressing confidence in reaching its goal in inflation, but also warning about the inequality of protectionism and monetary union Gone.
Global stocks continue to decline Risk-closed environments supported the safe American haven and the Japanese Yen. American accommodation data was mixed and therefore durable goods were ordered.
EURUSD Fundamental Analysis 29-Oct to 02-Nov
1. French Flash GDP: Tuesday, 6:30. The second largest economy of the Euro Zone saw a modest increase in Q2: only 0.2%, the recession after seeing better development. The French figure then feeds in all European numbers later in the day. An increase of 0.4% has been estimated.
2. German CPI: Tuesday, at 13:00 with the final figure during the European morning. The euro area’s largest economy saw a significant increase in consumer prices in September: 0.4%. However, things were more moderate on an annual basis. Now we will get an initial number for October The card has increased by 0.1%.
3. French Consumer Expenses: Tuesday, 7:45. French consumers returned their expenses in August with an increase of 0.8%. Consumption is expected to decline by 0.4% in September.
4. Spanish Flash CPI: Tuesday, 8:00. The euro area’s fourth-largest economy was the top inflation rate of 2.3% on the average currency block in September. Spain’s input also feeds in the Euro-Zone number. There is a repetition of 2.3% on the card.
5. German Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 8:55. Germany enjoys a continuous decline in the number of unemployed. The figure seen in August was particularly impressive: a slide of 23K. There is a possibility of another fall in September: -12
6. Euro-Zone GDP: Tuesday, 10:00. Early reading of GDP has the most important effect, even if it does not include data from Germany. In Q2, the first reading showed an increasing rate of 0.3%, but later it was upgraded to 0.4% and the 19-country economic block increased by 2.1% y / y. Similar growth rate, which is fine but not exciting, is now likely. 0.4% is on the card.
7. German retail sale: Wednesday, 7:00. Consumers did not buy in Germany because economists had predicted in the last few months. In August sales volume fell 0.1%. For September the card has increased by 0.5%.
8. French CPI: Wednesday, 7:45. In September, France saw a surprising decline in consumer prices: 0.2%. Data from France is the last important input for all European releases. Monthly growth in prices is likely to be in the initial number of October: 0.1% is estimated.
9. Spanish Flash GDP: Wednesday, 8:00. Spain has enjoyed high rates of growth in large European countries. However, it slowed down to Q2 with a quarterly increase of 0.6%. Flash reading for Q3 is unlikely to return to the high growth rate in the country: 0.6% is expected.
10. CPI: Wednesday, 10:00. The Headline Consumer Price Index is around the target of the ECB, which stands at 2.1% Y / Y in September. However, underlying value pressure remains weak. Core CPI increased only 0.9% Y / Y. To persuade the ECB, it will need to be accelerated that the inflation is actually maintained at around 2% and that not only is the annual increase in oil prices. The headline number has been predicted to increase by 2.1% while expectations for mini-acceleration in core CPIs are expected up to 1%.
11. Unemployment rate: Wednesday, 10:00. The unemployment rate in Eurozone is falling significantly after reaching 12% in 2013. The unemployment rate was 8.1% in August. September’s figures are now payable and the same 8.1% are on the level card.
12. Manufacturing PMI: Friday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, final French figure at 8:50, last German number 7:55, and final Euro-zone measurement at 9:00 pm.
The forward-looking index of the market has seen the significant slowdown in the manufacturing sector in particular. While the number is above the 50-point limit, the continuation of the trend can be sent below these figures, while separating the extension from the contraction.
Spain had 51.4 points in September and a slide of 51 was introduced. Italy was at number 50 and it is expected to fall in the contraction area at 49.7 points. According to the flash reading of France for October, the second largest economy had a score of 51.2, 52.3 in Germany and 52.1 in the entire euro area. The initial numbers are expected to be confirmed, but the surprises are quite common.
Technical Chart Analysis
EURUSD Technical Analysis 29-Oct to 02-Nov
1. 1.1815 was the high point in September. 1.1750 did not keep the pair less than four times in July and remained a powerful level.
2. 1.1720 is an experienced line that works in both directions and it captures the pair in mid-September. At the end of August 1.1650, the swing was low and after 1.1615 very closely followed, which played an important role.
3. 1.1570 was a lower point because, at the end of September 1.1530, the pair supported twice in August, making it an important line.
4. In the early fall of October 2018, there were 1.1460 fewer digits. 1.1422 was the low point in the middle of October.
5. 1.1365 temporarily reduced the fall in Euro / US Dollar 1.1300 is a round number which organizes the pair in mid-August and also puts the pair down in June 2017.
6. Bottom, we’re back at the last seen level in 2017. 1.1220 and 1.1100 are notable.