EURUSD Forecast: It lost much ground on the ongoing Italian crisis, but at the end of November, Greenback returned quite effectively after retreating.
The instability also wakes up. Will it continue? GDP figures and some other indicators are coming in the coming weeks. Here is an approach to this week’s key features and an updated technical analysis for EUR / USD.
Euro was under pressure from many fronts. German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she will go down following her party’s leadership after losing in the regional elections in Hesse.
Italy reported the stoppage in its GDP report for Q3. The disappointing result makes the conflict complicated with the European Commission in the 2017 budget.
Italy wants another expense to encourage the economy, while EC wants to spend less to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio. In America, the hope of a trade agreement between the United States and China was huge on the US dollar at the end of the week.
Changes in shares also reduced the demand for safe American haven. However, a deal is far from certain.
NFP defeated expectations with 250 and the acceleration of increments increased by 3.1%. Late in the week, it is reported that the ECB is adding a new TLTRO program weighing on Euro.
1. Spanish Unemployment Changes: Monday, 8:00 The fourth-largest economy in the euro-zone has seen physical improvement in its job market, but the unemployment rate is still above 14%. The latest monthly snapshot change in unemployment is of interest.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30 pm This survey of approximately 2,800 analysts and investors has stabilized in October with 11.4 points. We can see it falling in the November survey. A score of 9.9 is expected.
3. German Factory Order: Tuesday, 7:00 This volatile measure of orders in factories is above the expectations of 2% in August. The second consecutive month of growth can be seen in the September publication. There is a slide of 0.4% on the card.
4. Services PMI: Tuesday: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, the final French figure at 8:50, the last German number 8:55, and the last Euro-zone 9: 00. The market-moving survey for Spain’s service sector was 52.5 points in September, which was slightly above the 50-point threshold, which separated the contraction from detail.
5. PPI: Tuesday, 10:00. Prices on the doors of the factory eventually reach consumers. In September, the manufacturer’s price index increased by 0.3%. The figure for October will be similar. Expecting an increase of 0.4%.
6. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:00. Germany is considered “the locomotive of Europe”. However, recent hiccups have been observed in its industrial production. Production in August fell 0.3%. Changes in September are now payable and at this time of 0.1%, expectations are on another drop.
7. Retail Sale: Wednesday, 10:00. In August consumers squeezed their shopping: a slide of 0.2% was recorded. Although the major countries have issued data after releasing their data, it is astonishing. A slight increase of 0.1% is anticipated.
8. German Trade Balance: Thursday, 7:00 pm The German export eurozone maintains the balance of business for a long time. In August, the German surplus was 18.3 billion euros. The figure will be better for September: EUR 21.2 billion
9. French Trade Balance: Thursday, 7:45. Unlike Germany, France is suffering from trade deficits, which reached 5.6 billion in August. The deficit of 6.1 billion is now estimated.
10. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 8:00. The European Central Bank published its financial data during its decision, two weeks after its decision to make its decision. Statistics and analysis provide insights into the economic, inflation, and future monetary movements.
11. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45. Unlike Germany, French industrial production increased in August. A modest increase of 0.3% is a step forward for the second-largest economy of the eurozone. Now we will get the figures for September. There is a drop of 0.3% on the card.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.1815 was the high point in September. 1.1750 did not keep the pair less than four times in July and remained a powerful level.
1.1720 is an experienced line that works in both directions and it captures the pair in mid-September. At the end of August 1.1650, the swing was low and after 1.1615 very closely followed, which played an important role.
1.1570 was a lower point because, at the end of September 1.1530, the pair supported twice in August, making it an important line.
In the early fall of October 2018, there were 1.1460 fewer digits. 1.1422 was the low point in the middle of October.
1.1365 temporarily reduced the fall in Euro / US Dollar 1.1300 is a round number that holds the couple in the middle of August and late October. Double-Floor) and June 2017 laid down the pair too.
Forexcrunch: Bottom, we’re back at the last seen level in 2017. 1.1220 and 1.1100 are notable.