AUD/USD pair outlook

Economic News


To give strength to weaker AUD economic activity and its indicators need to improve.

Household debt, steady inflation and wage pressures are mains problems before RBA. These mains factors are which put RBA holding interest rate hike further.

Household savings ratio fell to low since 2007, the lowest; Q3 GDP numbers are weak result of fall in consumption and spending numbers.

Energy prices also falling which not push inflation higher and remains below estimates.

Labour market activity, also improving but not up to mark as RBA expected, Australia has rich natural resources and industrial production, making it most giant productive countries. Its economic growth relies heavily on exporting raw commodities any price rise or down affect its demand which results in export dips for country.

China major consumers of raw commodity as per its population and demand also have trade relation with Australia any trade war related dispute can harm countries growth.

 

Pair Outlook


AUD/USD has been sliding downwards approaches the 0.7000 may find support here once again, which continues to act as a key psychological barrier.

If any major political events and news from outside related to US, China economy and slowdown in EU can bring some correction in pair.

Major Risk is inflation as commodities prices sliding also implies demand decreasing and slow growth in economic activity fear of upcoming recession.

 

 

Technical Strategy


AUD/USD pair rose early in morning trading session on Monday but found enough resistance. Trading activity was on lower side ahead of Christmas. Trend line breakout on daily charts in early month rose pair to level of 0.7400 where it found resistance and reverse neglecting support of 0.7160. Now major support comes around level of 0.7000 break of it pair can find support near 2016 lows 0.6970.

ADX Trend strength indicator also raising which early indication of trend to lower side will continue.

Every pullback to higher side used to sell by smart market participants, visible by large bearish candlestick and small rise with small candlestick near support.

To reverse this pair needs to trades above 0.7100 which will assume pair took support around 0.7000.

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